Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Is it really that bad? Hmmm, not at all...

Faux Foreclosure Scare
If you watch the news, read stories online or read the paper, your impression is that the country is in the worst real estate depression since the 1930s. However, keep in mind a few facts:

1) Most foreclosures are in areas that were "hot" for speculators (California, Nevada, Florida) and those speculators are walking away from their mortgages
2) 35% of the homes in the U.S. have NO MORTGAGE
3) Foreclosures in California are primarily in overbuilt markets such as the central valley and "outlying" areas that aren't considered "prime".

Here's a news story that gives a perspective: http://www.kron4.com/global/Category.asp?c=85671

So, how many foreclosures have there been in Los Altos this year? Less than 10. Out of about 9000 homes, we've had less than 10 foreclosures. That's about 1/10th of 1 percent. Cause for panic? Not quite.

Real Estate Prices As A Rollercoaster Ride
Check out this graphical representation of real estate prices over the last 90 years. Pay close attention to the last 10 years. It makes you wonder what the press agenda is reall about with all the "bad news". http://youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U

Inventory Update
As of today we have 31 single-family homes on the market in Los Altos down from 39 a week ago. There is only one new house on the market on Estate Drive. I expect inventory to continue to drop through December as strong buyer demand continues and sellers wait until the spring.

On a side note: the number of short term rentals in the area (terms of 3-4 months) in increasing.

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