Thursday, November 12, 2009

One in 20 will buy next year because...we've bottomed out

I read an article that combined positive prospects with negative spin. The article states that 5% of the population intends to buy a home next year. This is down from a March survey and up from the June survey.

The good news is the primary reason why people will buy...because they believe we've reached the bottom. That's true. Most Realtors in this area would say we reached the bottom in February. Some think we still have a ways to go, especially at the high end.

In Los Altos, number of closed sales is accelerating. In Q1 2009 we had 27 closed sales. In Q2 we had 75 and in Q3 we had 87. The median sales price rose from $1.4M in Q1 to $1.6M in Q3. The low end is getting sold out and fast. As that happens, we should start to see more activity in the mid-range and high-end.

In Mountain View, sales are also accelerating and the low-end is driving it. There were 20, 76, and 82 closed sales in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively. The interesting thing about the sales is that median sales price has dropped from $1M to $860K from Q1 to Q3. That means more low priced properties are selling. Inventory is dropping as well.

So, we've most definitely reached the bottom. Now, can we sustain growth going into 2010. I think we will. I'll bet we see a much stronger than average Q4 and Q1. Maybe I'll make a few predictions for 2010 when we get closer to the end of the year.

Here's the original article from the SJ Mercury:

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